CPUs value. Ten-Year Forecast + Poll

[iguana]

Hi,
Doing a search here we all i believe are surprised sometimes by the prices back to 200x.

Now some CPU's prices looks almost stable or just follow the gold price (like common spec PPros)
Others significantly went up (like NexGens , x4004, C4040 , C8080, MCS6502... etc)

Today typical 486, PPro, NexGen and C4040 cost (approximately) 7, 27, 70 and 700 usd relatively.
Don't you think the ratio can be changed say in 10 or 20 years ?

Please do not misunderstand me.
It's not about money.
It's about free space and about mobility
(that's really actual for me still living both in .ua and .ca )
and it's not about collection but about extra chips.

So my question is... What is better to store:
100 pcs of common 486,
20 pcs of PPro,
or just one C4040 ?

Maybe PPros become more rare after gold scrapers?

or both 486 and 4040 will be just rare chips from 20th century and cost almost the same price?

P.S. according to the thread name.
What price will be for 486, PPro, NexGen, C4040... (your option) in 10 years?
Mine: 25, 100, 200, 1500

[Komz]

imo it's depend on two things - gold price and popularity. If our hobby will be more popular price for common cpu will rise, but for uncommon (like c4040) not to much.

[cedrik]

my guess is that all ceramic / ceramic gold cap will be more expensive since there are a lot of gold hunters diggin' for them... they are not manufacturing for years now so the number of existing is lowering every day....

if you consider spacing a problem, its obvious that having one c4040 is better than having 100 pcs of 486

on the other hand having 100 pcs of 486 let you sell some if big need of money and still remain with something ....

[cedrik]

[Leons]

Ok...My opinion, long story, could be wrong;

Common 486 chips, will always be common 486 chips. There will always be companies that stockpile these chips, not 100 pieces, but several 100's of kg's. Just because the goldcontent in a big lot of 486 is, for them, easy to tell and easy to process. Major companies won't scrap all of these, but stockpile a part of them because of the difference in tax you have to pay (scrap material versus processed gold)

C4040 will always be hard to find and will be harder to find in the future. Scrapping goes fast, mixed goldcapped chips will be processed to get the gold out of them.

If you think, a 486 is ''worth'' €7,- as per piece price for collection, that's ok. Processed content price will always be higher.


What I think the price will be in the future?


For common or mixed chips: only scrapmarket supply and demand price according to the spot gold price. For chips that are now already hard to find, will skyrocket according to the supply and demand price of collectors.

But please note; 486 chips will never be hard to find and not every chip that has been sold as scrap will be directly harvested for gold.

[iguana]

ok. thank you guys for your opinion.

please don't forget to make 10-year forecasts for 486, PPro, NexGen, C4040

will be interesting to see them later

[misace]

[Komz]

[xsecret]

Another point to think about: Socketed CPU will soon be history. No more Socket (BGA everywhere) and no more CPU (replaced by SoC). To makes things even worst, electronics waste is more and more regulated (and enforced) everywhere in the world.

[cedrik]

[KK_Fin]

I chose 20 pcs of PPros. Because common 486s are common and C4040s are already quite expensive (everyone can't afford).

[smithy]

I think we might see a lot more collectors when Intel has the 50th anniversary of the 4004. The more years that go, the more desirable a lot will become

[Robev]

I agree with Smithy, and just because people are young doesn't make them not interested in collecting.

If they have a bent towards Computers and the Hardware that they consist of then they will be interested in where it all started and that will lead them into collecting.

You can compare Collecting CPU's to Stamp Collecting and there are Millions of people worldwide and of all ages who are into Collecting Stamps. A Penny Black when new cost a penny and today is worth many many times that original cost. I think the same will happen with CPU's over a period of time.

[frag_]

[cedrik]