Chip rarity

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gshv



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 8:33 pm    Post subject: Chip rarity Reply with quote

I had one idea how to measure chip rarity. Rarity of a chip can be represented with a number that tells how many of these chips are known to exist. Because it's too boring to write "rarity 1000000" for common chips, it's better to use logarithmic scale, that is use base-10 logarithm of the number of known to exist chips. So, rarity 0 will be 1 chip, rarity 1 will be 10 chips, rarity 2 will be 100 chips, 3 is 1000 chips, and so on. Estimating rarity of the chip with this scale is easy:
< 1 - less than 10 known
> 5 - sell this crap for gold Smile

Comments?

Gennadiy
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FDIV



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have been thinking about this for some time myself. I am not sure that the scale should be logarithmic with a base of 10. Perhaps a base of 2 would work better since their is a great deal of difference between 10 and 100 in known existence. The finer resolution might be desirable. What I have been thinking about most though is the need to have some centralized system for keeping track of how many of each chip exists and what we each have. Perhaps on this site or cpuphotolibrary.com. Such an inventory system could also keep track of the prices paid for the chips (assuming the chip didn't come from the scrap yard for $1.00.) I know that it would be worth my time, if system for keeping track was devised, to enter my chips. I do wonder about the feasibility of such a system though. cpuphotolibrary.com currently has more than 3200 processors. That is alot of data to keep track of it would be alot of work but it would definitely take the guesswork out of things.
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gshv



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 25, 2007 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chiptalk wrote:
Nice... but how to you find out how many exist? Smile

You can estimate it by looking at places like partminer, usbid, and others.

Base-2 logarithm will better work for rare chips, but it's less convenient for common chips, and maybe difficult to understand by non-programmers. With base-10 logarithm you can still use fractions. For instance, rarity 0.5 is 3 chips.

Gennadiy
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chip68



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gshv wrote:
You can estimate it by looking at places like partminer, usbid, and others.


Considering their inventories hardly span the full depth and breadth of the integrated circuit industry from its inception in the late 1950s, I wouldn't expect statistics like that to yield an accurate assessment of rarity, especially when it comes to some of the earliest and most valuable specimens.

Number "known" (by whom?) doesn't necessarily tell you anything about how scarce a chip is. I think any reasonable estimate would also have to include how *often* they show up on the market. If it takes twice as long to find 10 examples of chip "B" as compared to chip "A," then obviously in some sense "B" is less common than "A."

- CMW
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For fun only:

how precise you can get?

Ask a lawyer, he'll make the guess work for you all...
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JAC



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice idea, but pretty pointless.

Impossible to know all known.

Common chips now will become rare in the future. Take ppros as an example.. rednecks buy them now by the cubic metre and crush them. What about future collectors.. eventually in some years there will be no availability of what was once very common. This has happened already.


What is the motive behind rarity? To determine pricing? .. For that I'd say stick with the basics..... supply and demand. Smile

Curiosity etc?, yes it would be good to know all known.. for that it would be cool to have some kind of database. Yes there are many chips, but cpuphotolibrary shows it can be done. Take rare chips like the 4004 ( not PDIP ), then instead of a page showing all the different varieties, also have a page showing all known chips, i.e. links or screen caps from other collectors sites.

Potential buyers/sellers can use all this information and you end up back to supply and demand, a dynamic beast.
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JAC



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

how do the philatelists do it?
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FDIV



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good question Jac, all the chips we deal with have to pale in comparison with the number of stamps.
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gshv



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JAC wrote:
Nice idea, but pretty pointless.

Impossible to know all known.

You're right, this is why rarity factor tells only approximate number of known processors - only the order. For example, I would give rarity from 1 to 2 to C8080B, even though I know there are only 4 or 5 of them in colections.

Quote:
What is the motive behind rarity?

Motive is to have something more concrete than the words "common", "uncommon", "rare", "very rare".

Quote:
how do the philatelists do it?

Don't know about philatelists, but here is a link explaining coin rarity:

http://lakdiva.org/coins/notes/rarity.html

Gennadiy
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jd



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that the "ladder of rarety comparision" is an awsome Idea ,especially for someone like me who's only been in this for about 2 years now, and still have alot to learn on the "rough value" of importance of a CPU.

Yeah, so some of you may not agree, but that's simple for you guys to say because you allready have knowledge on these kinda facts. So I'm voting yes for some sorta "chip rarety comparision page".



Maybe a simple solution like on a scale of 1 to 5 based not on us, but on the actual current value of a chip thru market values? This would give a justification on how to, #1 estimate it's value towards the forum(rarety), #2 and help put a rough price tag or trade value for them willing to part with it.


JD

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wepwawet



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good idea, nut who will use this term?
Who claims to have the right knowledge?


Finally we will discuss more about a 2 or 3 than about a "rare", "almost rare" or "common" now.

Like the not yet coming up VICCA my guess is that it is too early for implementing such detailed thoughts - even if then are very interesting and worth discussing.

Just think about the rarity of an XC6800 or a C4002-1 one year ago and today...
And this story will continue for many years until the last hidden stock is found.

Hm, wasn't there a thread about chip conditions by George?

maybe some thoughts will end up in VICCA section sometimes:-)

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g0b



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PostPosted: Sun Jan 28, 2007 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FDIV wrote:
Good question Jac, all the chips we deal with have to pale in comparison with the number of stamps.


Yes. If I remember well there has been sth like 300-400k different stamps ever printed. But the difference is much more in the number of collector and the size of the market which is bigger by many order of magnitude...

g0b

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Wyco



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PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe it would be a more to-the-point idea is to collect those cpus that we consider rare. Like make a list of those we havent ever seen, and the ones we saw 1-2, etc. This might be able to generate a discussion that filters out common chips.
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